FOX Carolina 21Mild This Week Then Signs of Colder

Mild This Week Then Signs of Colder

Mild This Week:  Monday's temperatures will make it to around 60 for the Upstate with middle 50s in Western NC.  It gets even better Tuesday and Wednesday as highs top out in the middle 60s with 60° for Western NC. 

Rain Potential:  As of now, there is a possibility of rain on Thursday, although this system looks fairly weak.  We'll keep an eye on how things come together through the early part of this week.

Signs Pointing to Arctic Air & Pattern Recognition:  We are currently in a very complex pattern with a overpowering Pacific Jet dominating the flow keeping most of the country warmer than normal.  That may change quickly.  A major flip in the overall flow in the US looks like it is about to get underway.  There have been some consistent signs pointing to a highly amplified, western ridge spiking around British Columbia/Western Canada and this ridge being a consistent, major player in our weather pattern for early February into mid-February.  It's worth noting that a tall, western ridge (warm out west) ALWAYS leads to very cold arctic air spilling into the southeast from northern Canada and also Alaska.  Extreme Alaskan cold has been building for months (with record snowfall).  This western ridge would tap into that arctic air and send it quickly southeast towards the Unites states.  When cold air digs toward the Gulf of Mexico, this can mean a favorable track and setup for winter weather for parts of the southeast.  Look for the possibility of some interesting weather ahead for us.

As for any sort of specific storm potential... there are just too many moving parts to get a confident handle on a specific storm in the long-range.  Any sort of change in the placement of a feature completely throws off a storm chance shown on a previous model run.  At this point, it's real tough to be specific on a storm chance beyond four to five days in advance.