FOX Carolina 21Winter Throwing Punches Late in the Fight

First Punch:  This weekend will be the coldest air so far this winter.  That is, if you can call the conditions experienced from December 21st through the first few days of February "winter-like."  I have to remind myself every now and then that winter in any southeastern state is comprised of far more warm days than cold.

Let's get on with it.  It's time to strap in for some much colder conditions around here weekend.  Saturday will be the windy day as a coastal storm develops east of Cape Hatteras and an arctic front behind the developing storm barrels down the Tennessee Valley in our direction showing its teeth by the afternoon.  Winds will be gusty tomorrow, with sustained winds in the 12-20mph range (with higher gusts) for the Upstate with 15-30mph winds in Western NC and higher gusts along the ridge tops.  At least we'll see more sunshine than clouds tomorrow for Upstate and NE Georgia towns making the cold more bearable - highs in the 43°-47° range.  Western North Carolina towns won't be as fortunate with a mostly cloudy sky and highs not making it out of the 30s with snow coming down at a good pace in towns north and west of Asheville.

Western NC Weekend Snow:  Towns such as Cherokee, Robbinsville, Waynesville, Mars Hill, Weaverville, Canton, Maggie Valley, Hot Springs, Marshall, Asheville, Burnsville, Bakersville, Spruce Pine and Little Switzerland will have snow coming down off/on from tonight on through the day Saturday.  2-5" of snow will come down in some high elevation area within Graham, Swain, Haywood, Madison, Yancey and Mitchell counties.  While some towns may end up with those 2-5" amounts, other area will only pick up a dusting of snow.  Expect road conditions in some areas to be passable as a lot of the snow is blown off the road due to high winds.  Plus, road crews do a tremendous job in Western NC.  However, back roads and secondary roads, especially those shielded from high winds, may get pretty slick Saturday.

Valentine's Day System:  This weekend's cold snap will lay the foundation of cold air responsible for a tricky situation on Tuesday.  As the arctic air lies in wait, another system will be charging in our direction Monday night into Tuesday spreading rain, sleet and some snow west of here on Monday and Monday evening. 

There are a few important things to recognize about the Valentine's Day setup:  (1) This setup is nowhere near a classic winter storm or snow situation for the Western Carolinas ... (2) Cold air is retreating as some warmer air advances in with the precipitation ... (3) the system isn't strong enough to produce a lot of precipitation, but that's a "Catch-22" because if the system were too strong, too much warm air would be pulled from the Gulf of Mexico and turn everything to rain.

After looking everything over this afternoon, the most probable scenario is a brief period of snow and sleet (an hour or two).  This will likely be followed by light rain as a weakening system moves through.  Precipitation amounts will be held down due to the upper-level energy weakening as it moves across the Tennessee Valley.  Fortunately, I don't see any freezing rain issues due to quickly warming surface temperatures after sunrise.  However, there's just enough mid-level cold (near level where snow is produced), to argue for some wet snow or sleet to come down for a time before a transition to light rain.  Timing looks like a window between 4am and 10am.

Things To Watch:  We'll see how quickly moisture is able to get here before the cold air retreats.  If rain, sleet and snow moves in earlier as more cold air is parked over our area, more snow may come down initially.  It may not take more than a couple of hours to drop an inch or two of snow on a few towns west of Greenville early Tuesday.  On the other hand, if this system continues to show signs of weakening as it moves in, there may not be enough moisture production to warrant many worries.  Although, as warm as the Gulf of Mexico is, I'm thinking more precipitation may be on radar Tuesday morning than what is expected.

Also, we'll have to watch this weekend's cold/dry airmass to see if more dry air moves in than was initially projected.  If that's the case then evaporation could drop surface temperatures as the precipitation falls.  Evaporational cooling is be a process where rain falls through dry air and evaporated causing the airmass to cool down several degrees.  Evap. cooling could also prolong an initial burst of snow or sleet in some areas.  More than anything, warm air advancing into the mid-levels should cut down on any prolonged snow/sleet on Tuesday.

Main Threat Area:  Northern Georgia and Western NC look like the only two places where cold air and moisture meet up for the longest period of time.  Viewers who live in the towns of Brevard, Rosman, Sylva, Whittier, Otto, Franklin, Highlands, Cashiers, Waynesville, Canton, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Candler and Asheville will likely have the most problems with sleet and snow.  Even in those places, the rising temperatures may change everything to light rain before ending.

(updating with maps)