FOX Carolina 21Viewer Snow Reports & Latest on Tuesday

-Viewer Photos/Reports:  Thanks for all of the reports we received through the day.  The first report came in this morning at around 10:30am from northern Haywood County along 1-40 as Barry Parham said 2 1/2 inches of snow was on the ground (picture at right).  There's no doubt some areas in Haywood Co. ended up with 4-6" total because of the radar returns I was watching all afternoon and evening.  Jimmy checked in from Robbinsville, NC in Graham County to let us know 1" had fallen there with off/on snow showers through the afternoon.  David in Leicester, NC reported 1" of snow this morning from Buncombe County.  Don in Weaverville, NC reported 2" of snow this afternoon just as the snow had stopped.  Chadwick drove from Oconee County to Highlands/Cashiers area and told us a dusting of snow was on the ground up there earlier this afternoon.  A friend of David's (Marietta, SC) reported 4" of snow had fallen on the Spring Creek community in Madison County.  Greg drove up to Highlands and also reported snow falling hard at times early this afternoon with a dusting on the ground in places.  Tammy reported some flurries in Rabun County, GA.  Ernie drove up to Caesars Head (northern Greenville Co.) earlier today and said flurries were hit or miss up that way.  Also, some late anonymous reports came in from just north of Cherokee, NC in Swain County along Highway 441 (which closed early in the day) mentioning 3-4" of snow had fallen as of this evening. 

As for viewer photos, we received several.  The first is from Barry Parham and Lindsay Stribble along I-40 in Haywood County from this morning.  The second photo is from Todd who has driven from Greenville to Maggie Valley and snapped this photo close to the ski resort of Cataloochee.  The third, fourth and fifth photos are from an anonymous viewer who took the photos near Mt. Pisgah.

-Bitter Sunday:  After high winds overnight, things will settle down a bit as breezy conditions are felt Sunday.  After a bitterly cold start in the teens for Upstate towns and some single digits in Western North Carolina, a sunny sky will help things a bit.  Still, highs will struggle to reach 37°-42­° in the Upstate/NE Georgia with many Western NC towns staying below 32° for afternoon highs.  Also, no snow will be expected across Western NC tomorrow as the northwest winds (responsible for that snow) slow down.

-Better Monday:  As the arctic high settled squarely over our heads on Monday, sunrise will be a cold start, but you don't have to expect brutally cold wind chills.  Lows will sink into the 16°-20° range for Upstate towns while Western NC temperatures drop to the 13°-17° range with the coldest conditions expected in the valleys as the coldest air slides down the mountain ridges.  Sunshine will get things back above 40 to around 44°-47° in the Upstate with Western NC making it from 40°-43°.  After a sunny sky most of the day, clouds will increase a good bit by Monday evening.

-Tuesday (Valentine's System) Discussion:  After looking things over today, I haven't been able to spot any significant changes to the previous forecast thinking for Tuesday.  That certainly doesn't mean things are set in stone.  Variables can and probably will change a bit tomorrow or Monday once this arctic airmass is fully understood/sampled by all forecast model data.  However, for the most part, this is looking like a non-event for anyone living outside of Western North Carolina and far northern Georgia/parts of Tennessee.

As for the new 0z versions of the GFS and NAM forecast data:  the 0z NAM was very quick to get rid of precipitation early Tuesday which may not be correct considering (warmer than normal) Gulf of Mexico waters.  Meanwhile, the 0z GFS held onto precipitation longer than previous runs and gave Western NC towns (mainly west of Asheville) a quick three-four dose of some sort of frozen mix before any changeover (0z GFS showed possibly even an hour or so of sleet for western Upstate/NE Georgia towns). 

-Things to Watch: 

(1) I suspect that moisture/precipitation may move in 3-6 hours ahead of forecast model projections (it happens more often than not). 

(2) On top of that, I think these forecast models aren't correctly identifying the staying power of the cold/dry airmass in Western NC early Tuesday. 

**Relying on a forecast model projection is a futile effort at times.  Using past experiences with similar setups is far more valuable.  I'm relying on having seen this situation happen a few times before - as a weakening arctic high leads to more evaporational cooling than expected once moisture moves into the area).  Plus, with recent snow on the ground, the sub-32° air will have yet another reason to be stubborn about leaving Western NC towns compared to what is being indicated. 

Things could trend colder in Western NC on some of the analysis tomorrow and Monday once this dry arctic air is sampled a little better. 

**Due to the possible early arrival of precipitation, I wouldn't be surprised at all if, by tomorrow or early Monday, we will have to talk a little more about NE Georgia and western Upstate counties getting in on two-three hours of moderate snow and sleet before sunrise Tuesday.