
We're tracking a low pressure that is slowly developing in the western Gulf of Mexico near south Texas. Our computer models have slowed down its movement and eastward progression over the past couple of runs. This means the rain may not start until nightfall on Saturday for our area. GREAT NEWS for those of you who want to get outside on Saturday! There will still be a chance for a few showers in the afternoon, but the heavy, soaking rain shouldn't arrive until 8pm or later.
There's some variance in our models on rain amounts. One to two inches of rain is definitely possible. I think we'll see at LEAST 0.75" area-wide, with locally higher amounts. Then there's the question of what happens on Sunday...
By the time many of us are waking up on Sunday, the heaviest of the rain will be heading east. We'll have lingering showers through the AM as one more impulse move through, then the Upstate should slowly clear after noon. In the mountains, the rain will turn to sleet and snow middle afternoon. We could have several hours of snow, especially near the TN border, from about 4-8pm on Sunday. I'm expecting light accumulations for spots like Asheville and Hendersonville (dusting to 1 inch), while 2-4 inches will be possible near the TN border. Looks like it could be an even bigger snow event for those around Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia. Slick roads will be possible late Sunday night in the mountains.
Presidents' Day should be clear and cool around here, then clouds build ahead of our next system on Tuesday. Rain will be likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday.