FOX Carolina 21**Updated - Highly Fluctuating Forecast Inside 24-Hours

1AM Sunday - Update:  After missing a crucial piece of energy connection from the Midwest, this system will be slightly weaker and suppressed even further south than forecast models indicated even a day ago.  **For those who enjoy snow, this isn't all good because a weaker storm can't generate the precipitation needed for those who want moderate snow falling outside of Western NC.**  A weaker storm with less support can't generate a strong snow axis on it's northwest side (which it was forecast to do for the past three days).  With inconsistent snow rates in some areas, snow won't accumulate much at all.  Still, and importantly, spotty rain will fall through the day Sunday just as was forecast. 

 

I have a (sorta) close friend who is a meteorologist in Virginia who had 6-8" and now won't get much of any snow at all due to the system ultimately not connecting with the energy in the Midwest, being weaker and moving much further south due to that weakening.  Flurries/few snow showers will be all the Upstate sees... that's the ceiling without more dynamics from a stronger upper-level system.  I don't like any other forecast aside from a few flurries or snow showers for all of the Carolinas, although if you have relatives in northern and northeast NC - those folks may see 2-4" type accumulations.

 

Rainy for Everyone Sunday:  Steady, occasional rain will move in through the day and be heavy at times.  No storms are expected.  Another 0.5" or so of rain is possible, although this weakening, suppressed storm really cut down on our rain totals.  

 

Winter Storm Warning:  Heavy snow is still expected in Western NC where upsloping winds will enhance snow rates.  W-S-Warnings have been issued for Yancey, Mitchell and northern McDowell.  Winter Storm watches are out for Madison and Haywood and I wouldn't be surprised if some Winter Weather Advisories are issued Sunday.  This will be a heavy, wet snow with large snowflakes raising the potential for power-outages in those areas as tree-limbs fight the weight of this snow tomorrow afternoon.  Watch out for tough driving in these areas as well.

 

Timing/Snow Ratios for Western NC:  After spending a lot of time looking over forecast soundings this morning, a few things stuck out to me.  The sounding is a "wet snow" profile, which you would expect with so much moisture moving in and the lack of any considerable arctic air.  Due to high moisture content, the sounding showed fairly low snow ratios of 8:1 or so (meaning it would take 1" of rain to produce 8" of snow).  Outside of the high ridges, some of the valleys will see only rain and sleet.

 

Timing looks as if the change-over occurs sometime between 10AM and 1PM with a steady/consistent moderate to heavy snow lasting until 6PM or so... before tapering off to inconsistent bursts of moderate snow until mid-evening.  By tomorrow evening around 8PM-10PM (in Western NC) there is a good amount of relatively drier air that works it's way into the layer of the atmosphere where snow is produced (above 5,000ft).  This will shut off the snow and at that point, there may be some freezing drizzle after 9PM as the dry air moves into the mid-levels. 

  

 

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