Forecast continues to give us a HEADACHE! - FOX Carolina 21

Forecast continues to give us a HEADACHE!

Seriously...  a blown forecast was had by all on the Fox Carolina Weather team!  I will tell you that meteorologically speaking... this morning's forecast was a very hard, easy-to-bust kind of weather situation.  A complex of storms developed to our north overnight, then the low level jet kicked in to give them some fuel and energy.  Models have a lot of trouble picking up on the development, propagation and duration of these complex systems, often because they create their own storm environment.  So, my forecast was for isolated mountain showers and a dry upstate for the morning, and we ended up with severe storms and heavy rain in many areas. 

I will say that I saw the signs that something like that COULD happen, but there were so many things pointing me toward a drier scenario that I just made a judgement call.  Lesson learned and now we are on to another forecast.  We always want to acknowledge when the forecast doesn't go the way we forecast, and we hope you know that it drives us CRAZY!  We want to be totally accurate all the time, but no matter how advanced we get in forecasting technology... that will NEVER happen!  We can just strive to get it right a lot, and keep you prepared for the next weather-maker coming!

We are looking at more storms for this evening.  A cold front will advance into our area through tonight, then stall in our vicinity for Friday.  Models are keeping most of the moisture to our south, but eventually some of that will develop into t-storms for the Upstate late on Friday.  The mountains will experience a few pop-up storms again Friday as well.  I'm going with about a 30% chance of storms area-wide.

Saturday should be mostly dry, as high pressure weakly controls our weather and the front drift north of us.  By Sunday another front will approach late in the day, so I've put in a slight chance (20-30%) of t-storms late Sunday.

It isn't looking as cool for next week as previously forecast.  We'll probably see about a 10 degree drop in high temps by Monday-Tuesday though, which will feel refreshing compared to the warmth and humidity due for the weekend!