For even more on the potential for Beryl, check out Andy's post below this one. This is a quick extension of that post.
Andy and I looked at a bunch of midday model runs this afternoon, and we agree on a bunch of things regarding this new, potentially tropical system near south Florida:
- It is developing pretty fast, so it has a good chance of becoming tropical between now and tomorrow afternoon.
- It will move to the north/northeast through tomorrow, until it encounters the control of high pressure well to our north.
- It should take an abrupt turn to the west, then southwest.
- Areas most likely to see a landfall or direct impacts: northern Florida and south GA coasts.
- Carolina coast will most likely see high surf, rip currents, and some off/on rain from late Saturday-Monday.
- The chance of the storm becoming a tropical system is pretty good, but the chance of it becoming a hurricane is very low. Should be more of a heavy rain/flood threat to south GA than a wind threat.
- If it makes landfall where we think it will, that would likely be late Sunday or Monday. It will meander around the Atlantic for a while before deciding on it's landfall spot.
- Heavy, beneficial rain will come with the system.
- For the western Carolinas and northeast GA... this will probably not being us widespread, heavy rain. But, we could get a few showers and storms from it early next week. This shouldn't affect our Saturday-Sunday weather, as we are still going with mostly sunny skies and hot conditions. Monday, Memorial Day we might have a few showers and storms.
So, if you are heading to the coast, keep posted on conditions. It doesn't look like an ideal weekend for being outside on the coast, but the father north you are along the Carolina coast, the better weather you'll get (according to our latest models!).
This is all subject to change as models get a better handle on the low pressure and also the ridge of high pressure to our north. Stay tuned and logged on!