Stout System Could Generate Strong Storms (& Rain) Late Next Week
last night's 0z European forecast model (valid for late Thursday) showing a very strong upper-level system capable of generating severe weather and rain along with very cold air for October standards (if projection is correct)
this morning's 6z GFS forecast model projection (valid for Fri morning) showing a line of rain and storms pushing through the Carolinas with cool air pouring in behind the front (if projection is correct)
here's a drier look - last night's 0z GFS forecast model (valid for Thursday morning) showing a dry front with lots of cool air moving south in our direction (if projection is correct)
Cool Breeze on Saturday: A resurgent northeast wind has provided cool Saturday conditions so far as temperatures have held in the 50s this morning. By the afternoon, all locations will make it into the 60s for highs under a partly cloudy sky as the sun comes back out at times. Afternoon temperatures should range from 60°-67° in most towns around here. If you have plans to get to downtown Greenville for Fall For Greenville, you should be good to go. This morning will be just a little on the cool side before some sunshine comes out this afternoon.
Sunday: Tomorrow will be a tad warmer with more sunshine than clouds. We'll also lose the cool, northeast wind on Sunday. Highs will climb into the low 70s for Upstate/NE Georgia areas with 60s for Western NC.
Monday: A few more clouds will build back in to start the work-week, but very little rain will fall from those clouds. There may be a passing shower take up 5-10 minutes of your day, but is that really even a big deal? Probably not. Ultimately, dry air will severely limit the amount of rain that falls on Monday. For most towns, expect dry conditions under a partly cloudy sky with 70s after lunch.
Late Week System in Focus: A powerful, late-week storm system may be in the cards for us impacting your Thursday and Friday plans. At this point the exact Xs and Os of what will and what won't happen are still up in the air and won't be decided for a few days. But, one thing I am counting on is a stout, large-scale system forcing a good bit of moisture ahead of it with plenty of cold air backing it.
Conditions around here have been fairly calm recently so I wouldn't be surprised if we contend with a stormy (or at least a rainy) setup late next week. As you can tell from the images I have loaded on the right-side of this page, a large dip in the polar jet stream will likely trigger a low pressure system to develop somewhere in the deep south. How much rain this thing will bring is yet to be determined as a few forecast models keep the Western Carolinas (our whole area) on the dry side focusing more on a cold shot of air rather than rain. However, and more importantly, forecast data has been trending toward bringing the strongest upper-level energy south which would translate into a wetter, stormier look for us. The European forecast model even recognizes the possibility of a negatively tilted upper-level system which would deliver strong to severe storms across the area if its projection is correct.
We have plenty of time to watch this system during the next five days, but for now, expect a good chance for widespread rain and a drastic cool-down following this rain during the Thursday through Saturday window.