Warmth, Tropics & the Slim Chance for Intense Halloween Coastal - FOX Carolina 21

Warmth, Tropics & the Slim Chance for Intense Halloween Coastal Storm

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Warm... for Days:  While temperatures may start a bit cool every day this week, conditions will improve by a large margin during the afternoons each day.  Lunch-time temperatures will reach the low 70s with highs climbing into the upper 70s in the Upstate/NE Georgia.  Western NC temperatures will also be warm with low-middle 70s expected through Friday.

Tropical System:  We are closely monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean which could become the next named storm which would be "Sandy" if the system fully develops.  The odds of this system having much of an impact on the Carolinas is up in the air, but it certainly looks as if out to sea will be the eventual outcome.  A tropical system really has to fight hard to fend off the westerlies once it moves north of Florida.  Those westerly upper-level winds will most likely push it far enough east for only rip current and high surf type impacts along the FL, GA and SC beaches by next week.

Chances of Coastal Storm Next Week:  15%.  The European forecast model has been projecting a major east coast storm developing with the remnants of the tropical system phasing into another cool air mass headed in our direction for next week.  If that European forecast model projection is correct, wind and a drastic chill will settle in here for Halloween while the east coast gets hit with a snowstorm.  Even though it would be interesting to see a big storm happen, odds are in favor of a progressive, less-amplified flow (closer to what the GFS model shows) which pushes the tropical system far out to sea eliminating a massive coastal storm

I'll play devil's advocate, but fair question: how many times must the European forecast model scam people into believing an intense "super storm-type" scenario is likely?  The Euro showed this TOO many times last fall and winter.  However, maybe if we can get some split flow (off/on major cold flowing south with an active subtropical jet underneath) this winter then things will be different as the European is known to handle a split flow much more efficiently than the GFS of other forecast models

Until then, I have zero confidence in Euro model solutions until it proves me wrong.  Also, would it surprise anyone if yet another tropical system flies out to sea?  It shouldn't.



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