Wintry Situation to Watch, but Most Likely Hog-Wash - FOX Carolina 21

Wintry Situation to Watch, but Most Likely Hog-Wash

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Dense Fog Advisory:  Expect patchy, thick fog in some locations early Monday as a dense fog advisory has been posted through 8am.

Let's Talk Monday First:  Scattered rain will become more likely by Monday morning, especially if you live in towns west of Greenville, Spartanburg and Asheville.  In fact, it looks as if most of the rain will stay along and west of Greenville and Asheville for most of the day.  Temperatures will be mild with 60s by afternoon and there will also be the possibility for a few thunderstorms due to the mild conditions.

Tuesday:  Dry and cooler with a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs will reach the 40s in Western NC and 50s for the Upstate.

Wednesday:  During the 10pm newscast, I re-introduced rain into Wednesday's forecast.  Well, if the latest 0z GFS model is correct in it's projection, then there sure won't be much (if any) rain to go around as a weak system cruises just a hair too far south of us for any widespread rain.  I'll keep the chance of spotty showers in there for now, but we may have to remove that again.

Something to Keep an Eye On:  Speaking of the latest version of the GFS forecast model (0z), it shows a potential coastal storm on it's projection of next Monday's time frame.  Along with this coastal storm, the 5000ft temperatures shown are very close to supporting wintry precipitation area-wide if the forecast model is correct

We have to keep in mind that it's the middle of December and tonight's projection is most likely going to be a one-hit wonder and pull a disappearing act meaning it will probably go missing or won't be shown on forecast model versions in the coming days.  Three things could happen with this: (1) Future runs may not be cold enough to support wintry precipitation, (2) the storm track could be further inland or (3) the winter storm setup will likely fade all-together.

However, some interesting aspects of this situation are worth notingOne is that there has been a lot of cold air bottled up in Canada since late November and snow-cover is impressive in southern Canada.  In fact, Canada as well as the upper-Midwest will have snow-cover lying around a week from now which could aid a colder airmass moving south.  Also, the Pacific jet stream has been very active and at times down-right dominant lately in keeping most of the very cold air in Canada from moving south toward us.  However, at some point the tug-of-war between the Pacific stream and the cold air trying to move south out of Canada could spark a combustible setup in terms of the potential for a strong, early season system.  

Take it for what it's worth, but I am doubting that enough cold air in Canada will push south to ultimately win the tug-of-war with the Pacific and that this chance will probably fall off the table.

We will keep an eye on it and we have plenty of time to do so.




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