Slim % Light Rain on Monday & February Will Start Cold - FOX Carolina 21

Slim % Light Rain on Monday & February Will Start Cold

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Sunday: We'll notice more clouds than sun on Saturday.  Temperatures will start in the low 30s for Upstate/NE Georgia towns and won't warm much as many towns will only reach 46°-50° by afternoon.  Western NC temperatures will begin the day in the 20s, then reach the 40s by afternoon under more clouds than sun.  No rain will come down today.

OvernightThere is the slim chance for a spotty, light pocket of rain tonight into very early Monday, but most Upstate towns will remain dryWestern NC mountain towns in Yancey, Mitchell and McDowell counties will have to keep an eye out for some light ice on bridges overnight through early Monday as a Freezing Rain Advisory is in effectThere won't be enough rain to cause serious problems, but there could be some slick places on roads/bridges.

Monday:  Aside from the widely scattered spotty, light rain, expect another mostly cloudy sky on Monday as temperatures stay cool, but will be a bit warmer than Sunday.  We'll max-out in the upper 40s to low 50s in Upstate communities with the same range of temperatures for Western NC. 

Tuesday:  Tuesday will feature a bit more sunshine and also much warmer air.  Temperatures will be near 40° to start the day in Upstate towns and go all the way into the upper 60s by afternoon.  Meanwhile, Western NC towns can expect morning lows in the 30s, then afternoon highs reaching the low-middle 60s.  It is going to be a great day to be outside Tuesday.  Rain will stay west of us Tuesday as a strong system moves into the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday night.  A good portion of our warm-up will be due to this system advancing a southwesterly wind flow into our area.

WednesdayRain will move in.  With the strength of the system moving our way, we will have to mention to possibility of a line of thunderstorms, especially with all the warm air we'll have ahead of the approaching front.  However, it's best to just expect a good chance for rain and we'll resolve thunderstorm chances in the coming days.  Temperatures will most likely remain in the 50s while the rain falls, but there is some chance we'll reach the low 60s in a few towns.

Something to Follow for Late Next Week...?:  Recent forecast data made some indications that a winter storm setup would make an appearance late in the week.  Several forecast model projections over the last several days indicated that a northern stream system would cruise into the desert southwest, cut-off from the overall flow and then interact with or phase into the polar jet stream a few days later.  That interaction or phasing lead to the possibility that there would be a major system late in the week.

It's been important to take note of the changes since then.  Forecast data now indicates the same system will not disconnect from the flow to stay behind and leave a chance of another piece of energy to phase in with it.  Instead, the southwestern energy remains attached to the polar flow and will be some of the energy helping bring us our rain chance Wednesday instead of lagging back & bringing a second, stronger system Friday.

This is the most likely scenario at this time, but we'll keep an eye on things over the next day or two with the slim chance of that energy cutting off in the desert southwest early next week

To me, it looks like the only real entertainment we'll see late next week is the Super Bowl.

February Cold StartFriday the 1st, Saturday the 2nd and Sunday the 3rd of February will all be cold days.  Lows will start in the 20s for the Upstate with teens in Western NC, while highs will only reach the 40s in Upstate towns and 20s/30s in Western NC

As of now, GFS guidance numbers are far too high with their suggested temperatures.  It will be colder than the H-50s/L-30s suggested.

Also, high elevation accumulating snow is likely on Thursday of this week.

 

 

 

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