I apologize for the late post. I had a lengthy post typed up at 9:30am and my login info timed out so I lost all of what I had previously typed. Bummer. :)
Comfortable Monday Afternoon: After the chilly start in the teens and 20s, afternoon temperatures will be a lot more comfortable. Highs will make it into the middle 50s for Upstate/NE Georgia towns with upper 40s and low 50s in Western NC towns. No rain will fall today.
Tuesday/Wednesday System Update: The eventual track and positioning of our mid-week system has come into a clear focus, especially since the jet stream pattern showed some room for this system to trend north and a lack of ridging along the west coast denied this system any chance to dig south.
As we mentioned, the position of the system as it moves into our region is the most important factor in determining what precipitation-type we'll deal with through Wednesday. The area receiving snow from an upper-low is usually small and has to be perfectly positioned just north & northwest of the mid-level center.
The core of this upper-low will move just north of the Upstate, NE Georgia and Western NC. Tomorrow, the center will be positioned somewhere close to the TN/KY line and warm air will overspread our region causing rain to come down for the Upstate, Western NC and NE Georgia. Spotty, light rain will continue for the Upstate & NE Georgia through Wednesday morning.
Once the core of this upper system moves east of the mountains, rain will transition to snow in Western NC starting late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday for mostly the ridge tops. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for high elevation portions of Western NC where 2-6" of snow is expected, although mainly in places/towns above 3,000ft. Even though Buncombe Co. & northern Jackson Co. is included within the winter storm watch area, I'm doubtful that many towns within Buncombe, Jackson (Macon too) will see much other than rain due to the positioning of this system as it moves closer to us. High elevations within those counties will have accumulating snow, but there will be drastic cutoffs.
Late Week Warmth: It's easy to tell which part of the forecast looks the best. Later this week we'll enjoy some Spring-like temperatures as Upstate highs reach the 60s Friday, Saturday and Sunday with Western NC highs reaching the middle-upper 50s. I'm guessing that will be a welcome change for a lot of people!
Severe Weather Awareness Week: Just a reminder, this week is National Severe Storms Preparedness Week. For more information on state-wide tornado drills in SC & NC: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml