We have another active week of weather, with huge temperature changes from day to day and the chance for some rain and snow. Many of you in the Upstate are wondering when we'll get a good shot at snow, and we may see a little on Wednesday and Friday. Here's the scenario...
For Wednesday, a strong cold front will move in. It will bring a only a little bit of moisture, but enough to cause some brief, heavy snow near the TN border in Western NC. For the Upstate, we could see some of that moisture mingle with the cold air rushing in midday on Wednesday, and that would lead to a few brief snow or snow/rain mix showers. I wouldn't expect anything to accumulate, and it would be fairly short-lived.
Now for Friday's scenario... Check out the image I attached to the post. It is from this morning's run of the European model. The model is showing a deep trough of cold air and some energy rounding the base of the it. A low pressure may develop in the vicinity of the Carolina because of this.
That scenario would bring in moisture along with the air that would be supportive of snowfall, even in the lower elevations of the Upstate and northeast GA.
On the image, the blue line indicates the 540 thickness line, which is one of the indicators we use to determine when rain will turn to snow. That line is across the Midlands, which would give us a good shot at having the cold air in place for some Friday evening snow in the Upstate (and it might even stick). I stress, this is just one computer model.
However, the GFS model keeps us pretty much dry on Friday. This is just a trend we need to watch for late week, because it could mean a BIG snow for the mountains and a light accumulation for the Upstate. Stay tuned!
As for the short term, we are expecting RAIN for the Upstate tonight, and mostly rain for the mountains too. We could see a few snow showers near the TN border tomorrow morning before we'd briefly clear out.
We'll continue to monitor the models regarding the Wednesday and Friday systems! I definitely don't want to get your hopes up for snow, but I wanted you to know what one of our better winter weather models was saying about middle and late week!