A win by the Miami Dolphins over the New England Patriots is our computer model projection for these teams' upcoming matchup, on Sunday, September 17 at 8:20 PM ET (at Gillette Stadium). For a full breakdown, including the spread, over/under and final score, keep scrolling.

The Dolphins totaled 23.4 points per game on offense last season, which ranked them 11th in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they ranked 24th, allowing 23.5 points per game. The Patriots ranked 26th in total offense (314.6 yards per game) and eighth in total defense (322 yards allowed per game) last season.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions and Picks

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Dolphins (-1.5) Over (46.5) Dolphins 32, Patriots 26

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Dolphins Betting Info

  • The Dolphins have an implied moneyline win probability of 55.6% in this contest.
  • Miami covered nine times in 17 chances against the spread last season.
  • The Dolphins covered the spread five times last season (5-5 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.
  • Miami games hit the over eight out of 17 times last season.
  • The point total average for Dolphins games last season was 46.9, 0.4 points higher than the over/under for this matchup.

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Patriots Betting Info

  • The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 48.8% chance of a victory for the Patriots.
  • New England covered seven times in 17 chances against the spread last year.
  • The Patriots were an underdog by 1.5 points or more eight times last season, and covered the spread in two of those matchups.
  • A total of eight of New England games last season hit the over.
  • Patriots games averaged 42.5 total points last season, four fewer than the total for this matchup.

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Dolphins vs. Patriots 2022 Scoring Insights

Pts Pts Allowed Home Pts Home Pts Allowed Away Pts Away Pts Allowed
Miami 23.4 23.5 21.6 15.5 24.9 30.6
New England 21.4 20.4 19.5 17.9 23.1 22.7

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